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Discussion
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stevej Jun 01, 2020 10:40 AM
Dear EEA,
Is there any hope that the EU might one day develop an open-source climate model?
The insurance industry depends on open-source climate models for climate risk modelling. Right now, the only models that are open-source are the US models, so we use those, even for risk modelling in Europe e.g. European house insurance rates are based on US climate models. The whole situation where the EU doesn't have an open-source model seems a bit crazy, given the importance of climate change, and given the vast amount of money the EU puts into climate research.
Replies (4)
EEA Jun 08, 2020 09:05 AM
Dear M. 'Stevej',

Thank you for contacting the European Environment Agency (EEA).
The competent experts have been consulted on your question and we are awaiting their feedbacks. Thank you for your patience.

With kind regards,
EEA Enquiry Service
EEA Jun 16, 2020 09:37 AM
Dear M. 'Stevej',

Thank you for your patience.

The most recent climate model projections for Europe, based on regional climate models embedded in global climate models (also known as general circulation models), are available through Euro-CORDEX: https://www.euro-cordex.net/ . However, the underlying models are run by the relevant meteorological services or research institutions.
 
An increasing amount of climate data is available through the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The following C3S demonstrator project ‘Climate hazards data to prepare financial institutions for the future’ is expected to provide relevant information within about a year:
https://climate.copernicus.[…]nancial-institutions-future
We would suggest you to contact C3S directly for additional information about this specific C3S project. C3S works on a range of topics and sectoral areas and the development of new services for commercial purposes is promoted.
 
More specific for the insurance industry, the H2020 project OASIS is working on a platform: the innovation hub (https://h2020insurance.oasishub.co/) integrating tools and modelling instruments from different providers (and of which some are freely available).
 
From its knowledge on climate change and European environmental and climate data, EEA advices EIOPA in the CAT expert network. However, the Solvency II Directive and the potential uptake of climate change in the standard formula, as well as the likelihood for a free impact model for the European insurance industry are outside of EEA’s competency. Such a question should be directed to the European Commission DG FISMA or to the supervisory authority (EIOPA).
 
Finally, we would like to point out that the Commission is currently conducting an open consultation on a new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change:
https://ec.europa.eu/clima/[…]daptation-climate-change_en . You may wish to share your request with the Commission through your participation in this consultation. However, please note that no individual response can be expected through this channel.
 
We hope that this may be useful for you.

With kind regards,
EEA Enquiry Service
stevej Jun 16, 2020 11:12 AM
Thanks, although you didn't really answer the question. Can I interpret your answer to my question as being the following?

"No, there are no plans for the EU to develop an open-source climate model."

Let me know if that's an incorrect interpretation.
EEA Jun 18, 2020 08:58 AM
Dear Sir,

Through the Platform Climate-ADAPT, EEA is actually providing open-source information on climate projections and will do so even more in future. Please see: https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/

For several of its indicators and assessment reports, EEA uses the results of climate models from the sources we mentioned in our previous reply. Through Copernicus, data are freely available and more and more services are developed.

The EEA is not developing an open-source climate model and our Agency is in general not performing this type of modelling activities in any field of environmental knowledge. In addition, the EEA is not aware of any plans to develop a new open-source model by a body of the European Union in addition to the existing ones ran by meteorological services and research institutes.

In particular if there is need from a certain sector, we suggest to contact those directorates-general of the European Commission responsible for the related policies or the bodies in charge of its implementation. You can also voice your need through the public consultations organised by the European Commission on the topic of climate action. Two consultations are open, including the one on the EU Adaptation strategy mentioned in our previous answer.

With kind regards,
EEA Enquiry Service
 
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